An overwhelming portion of Turkey’s independent observers have for some time agreed that, given the amalgamation taking place between the hard-liner elements of the old “shadow state” and the top circles of the AKP under control of the office of the presidency, a rift was sooner or later inevitable within the ruling party.
They agree that the AKP has become unified with the nature of the old, repressive state of decades ago, as it allowed its old-style bureaucratic core into its political body; by enhancing immense space to security forces to deal with, not only the Kurdish stalemate, but also any sort of dissent, on paper or on the streets.
The main issue is, as developments show, the severe verticalization of the party’s management, as well as the total abandonment of civilian politics.
So, it isn’t hard to guess that the party is approaching a watershed.
Will its remnant pro-civilian inner dynamics be able to refresh a momentum for a return to civilian politics, or, as we see it now, will it be taken further into a full marriage with the old state, under the assertive dynamics represented by Erdoğan himself?
As reported by Cumhuriyet in a news analysis, anonymous sources from the AKP are quoted as such:
”When the AKP was founded, this principle was elementary: Collective wisdom. But we know now that it is lost; and turned into a ‘single mind.’ Given the Kurdish process, fight against terror, and foreign policy etc, Turkey’s policies are not sustainable. Therefore one should read Arınç’s remarks as ‘Somebody should speak up now, and give due warnings.’”
Said Sefa, editor of the news site Haberdar and one of the keen observers of the party since its foundation (and whose family elders are among the party’s founders), commented on the “disgruntlement of the grey-haired” as such:
”Because (they) know Erdoğan will not return to the old rules of the game, they now try to position themselves. Hoping that a return to the old spirit may be possible, they plan to save their political reputations and get a place in the game. The current opposition is no cure to the deficiencies of politics, since it has no vision to ask grassroots to mandate them in power. They also know that the way out of the dead end of politics is if the AKP is liberated from the reins of Erdoğan…”
The latter, of course, knows that whatever comes out from the AKP in terms of dissent will be focused and limited to strip him, as much as possible, from exercising his iron fist over the party.
The follow-up is uncertain, except for one details: The outcome of any rift within the AKP will define the destiny of Turkey, since Erdoğan is currently facing no other challengers.
Read my full analysis here.
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About yavuzbaydar
Yavuz Baydar has been an award-winning Turkish journalist, whose professional activity spans nearly four decades. In December 2013, Baydar co-founded the independent media platform, P24, Punto24, to monitor the media sector of Turkey, as well as organizing surveys, and training workshops. Baydar wrote opinion columns, in Turkish, liberal daily Ozgur Dusunce and news site Haberdar, and in English, daily Today's Zaman, on domestic and foreign policy issues related to Turkey, and media matters, until all had to cease publications due to growing political oppression. Currently, he writes regular chronicles for Die Süddeutsche Zeitung, and opinion columns for the Arab Weekly, as well as analysis for Index on Censorship. Baydar blogs with the Huffington Post, sharing his his analysis and views on Turkish politics, the Middle East, Balkans, Europe, U.S-Turkish relations, human rights, free speech, press freedom, history, etc. His opinion articles appeared at the New York Times, the Guardian, El Pais, Svenska Dagbladet, and Al Jazeera English online. Turkey’s first news ombudsman, beginning at Milliyet daily in 1999, Baydar worked in the same role as reader representative until 2014. His work included reader complaints with content, and commentary on media ethics. Working in a tough professional climate had its costs: he was twice forced to leave his job, after his self-critical columns on journalistic flaws and fabricated news stories. Baydar worked as producer and news presenter in Swedish Radio &TV Corp. (SR) Stockholm, Sweden between 1979-1991; as correspondent for Scandinavia and Baltics for Turkish daily Cumhuriyet between 1980-1992, and the BBC World Service, in early 1990's. Returning to Turkey in 1994, he worked as reporter and ediytor for various outlets in print, as well as hosting debate porogrammes in public and private TV channels. Baydar studied informatics, cybernetics and, later, had his journalism ediucatiob in the University of Stockholm. Baydar served as president of the U.S. based International Organizaton of News Ombudsmen (ONO) in 2003. He was a Knight-Wallace Fellow at University of Michigan in 2004. Baydar was given the Special Award of the European Press Prize (EPP), for 'excellence in journalism', along with the Guardian and Der Spiegel in 2014. He won the Umbria Journalism Award in March 2014 and Caravella/Mare Nostrum Prize in 2015; both in Italy. Baydar completed an extensive research on self-censorship, corruption in media, and growing threats over journalism in Turkey as a Shorenstein Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.
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